Turmoil in Iran Simmering, Not Over

Although news about Iran’s stolen election have fallen off the radar of most news outlets, things have not calmed down or been resolved. Not by a long shot.

While the ruthless Basij and riot police were able to suppress the protests and prevent any new ones, the same discontent simmer beneath the surface ready to explode at any moment.

If this does play out following the same time line as the Iranian revolution 30 years ago, it will go on for months and build momentum slowly. I’m still not convinced that it will however. The Islamic Republic has shown itself to be completely without mercy when it comes to internal challenges. There is no line they will not cross to maintain power.

But it would seem that Rafsanjani has been busy in Qom. The Assembly of Qom Seminary Scholars and Researchers recently released a shocking statement (see below).

Doonesbury cartoon about Iran's election 2009
Doonesbury

Since this all began I kept a running tally of links to important articles, new developments and analysis. I’ve continued to add links to it but since the list is getting really long I’ll keep going below:

There is also an interesting site I stumbled onto with fascinating pictures and images of the olden Mid-East. There is only one that directly pertain to the Baha’i Faith. And I believe it is incorrect or at least incorrectly labeled. It is the image below:

AbdulBaha's grandsons from mideastimage.com

Photograph, of the grandsons of ABDUL BAHA, taken in Acre [ Acca ]/Syria in 1905. One of the two grandsons is Shoghi [Showqi ] Effendi,known as the “Guardian of the Cause”…

Neither of the two men resemble Shoghi Effendi (not even close!). But the other images of the cities and people of the time of Abdu’l-Baha are interesting nonetheless.

  • http://www.wahidazal.blogspot.com/ Wahid Azal

    Bacquia, link to the Green Briefs on Anonymous Iran (News and Current Events Section) http://iran.whyweprotest.net/

    Much of the material compiled by Iran_Translator (Josh Shahryar aka NighOwl) has ended up being used by writers for the Huffington Post and elsewhere. This compilation of material is from verified tweets on Twitter from mostly an Iranian contingency inside Iran itself. Josh's Green Brief's are, as the name suggests, daily summarized briefs of the Sea of Green Revolution in progress.

    What is going to happen (and you can take this to the bank): we are witnessing the unravelling of the theocratic Khomeinist mullocracy. At minimum when this is all over the VF system (vilayat-i-faqih) will be no more. Optimally we are watching the beginnings of the secular Republic of Iran in the birthing stages.

    Now recall 1978-79 and where that so-called revolution *really* got off the ground at that point. February 1979 the daily Ettela'at published its scurrilous (although in retrospect quite accurate) attack on Khomeini. Massive outcry in Qom and amongst other traditional centers in Iran. Modest sized demonstrations commence here and there but are mercilessly put down immediately by the Shah's security forces. By Naw-Ruz 1978 the government of then Prime Minister Jamshid Amouzegar claimed on Iranian national television that all was well with the nation. Nothing of major significance happens until August of that year with the Rex Cinema fire in Abadan (which is blamed on SAVAK, but was more than likely done by the Islamists themselves). Only a few short weeks after the Rex Cinema fire did we witness the events of the Jaleh Square massacre in September, upon which martial law was declared, at which point the country spiralled irredeemably into full scale revolt and eventually revolution.

    Compared to 1978-79 here in 2009 we are way ahead of the curve of any initial revolutionary stages. Also the Shah did not until the very end (and only a few short weeks before he actually left Iran) experience the kind of overwhelming internal fractures and dissent within the ruling elite structures that this regime is experiencing now. The Khamenei/Ahadinejad axis is royally screwed!

    This dissent on the highest levels is not going away any time soon, but is going to get worse and worse from here on out. There are unconfirmed rumors still persisting that the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard corps) is seriously split itself with only 30% of the senior officer corps standing with Khamenei and his gang of thugs. If the national strike finally does get underway, crackdown or no crackdown, expect the regime to unravel fast. And you can quote me on that!

    Also follow which way the loyalty of the bazaaris finally goes, which looks at this time to be swaying towards the view of the dissenting mullahs in Qom.

    Wahid

  • Baquia

    Thanks Wahid, appreciate your insight into this. I'm keeping watch over many different media outlets and sites including the anon. site you mention. As well as NIAC's blog, HuffPo, Sully@Atlantic, etc… This is not over.

  • Craig Parke

    I can't wait to go to work in a few minutes and put in a full days work writing programming code! The x86 instruction set is coming upon the whole world. EVERY institution on Earth at EVERY EVERY LEVEL is going to be held FIERCELY ACCOUNTABLE to the entire people of the world. Deeds not words. Full and complete justice and competence 24/7/365/1000.

    I hope our guys are smart enough to know what is coming worldwide.

    I hope they are up to it.

    Anyone in any positions of power anywhere, had better be wearing asbestos underwear.

    Deeds NOT phony words.

    Skill in action NOT phony words.

    Justice for every human being on Earth in DAILY ACTION.

    The planetary Cosmic thought atom for this new World Age is forming on fierce tidings of focused thought light for FULL ACCOUNTABILITY.

    Woe unto you Scribes and Pharisees everywhere! Woe unto you hack clergy in whatever bogus system! Woe unto you unworthy, incompetent and corrupt people in every human endeavor.

    The PROMISED DAY HAS INDEED COME!

    The screws are going to start to tighten everywhere.

    IT WILL BE FIERCE.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffingto

    Everyone keep posting!

  • fubar

    Ariana's work on anti-lobbying is important, looks like good stuff. This kind of thing has to be broadly populist, not just something that the PC/far/left uses to beat the same old drum.

    It is critical now that people in the USA look at the TransPartisan political movement, or some other form of integral politics.

    (to stay on-topic: e.g., Ron Paul agrees with Obama on how to approach supporting reforms in Iran.)

  • http://www.wahidazal.blogspot.com/ Wahid Azal

    “The PROMISED DAY HAS INDEED COME!”

    'Bout freakin' time!

    Check it out. I talked to this guy from Dezful today. Dezful is a town in the south-western Iranian (oil rich) province of Khuzistan. This town witnessed some fierce fighting during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, falling back and forth between Iraqi and Iranian forces several times.

    Anyway, this friend of mine called my cellphone using Skype. These tech-savvy Iranian revolutionaries are bypassing all the dud proxies, servers and firewalls the regime is throwing at them. I am getting calls and text messages from places in Iran the media is saying are blocked. He said he had just gotten back from several hours of demonstrating and confronting security forces during this 10th anniversay of the 18th of Tir Student Riots at Tehran University. He said in Dezful some of the women have formed ad hoc confrontation battalions, using homemade weapons and their own wooden batons, and confronting the Basijis – even stealing weapons from the Basijis when they had them down. Apparently during one episode today (or yesterday now) a small group of Basijis had chased down a group of protestors down an alley only to be ambushed (i.e. the Basijis) in that same alley by a large group of women weilding clubs and rocks who thereupon set themselves upon these Basijis with ferocity. Who said Iranian women couldn't kick Basiji hide! Hell hath no fury…

    This Revolution in Iran is being televized, and believe it this regime is royally f^%cked!

  • Craig Parke

    I think the numbers on people registered “Independent” in the U.S. tells the tale. I think “TransPartisan” is the developing planetary politics of the Internet. The first agenda items are:

    (1) complete honesty
    (2) complete transparency
    (3) complete ruthless accountability
    (4) complete justice in all things

    Anyone caught lying is toast. Anyone caught being corrupted in any way is toast. Anyone that is incompetent is toast.

    The Baha'is can have their World Theocratic State too. Whatever. BRING IT ON. Everyone is in the same boat. Whoever thinks they want to run the world is going to have 6 billion keyboards up their asses 24/7/365/1000. Let the best system win.

    Meanwhile, good news on Ron Paul. Looks TransPartisan is now all the rage. Looks like Hitler, Ron Paul, and Obama are now all on the same page. At least about Palin. Systemically speaking of course.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IzNPEGWNos

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svf0vhVZ3Fo

    Now it's back to work. It's Friday but it is another day in Paradise writing computer code.

  • Craig Parke

    Wahid Azal,

    Thank you for this very interesting and informative update. Women cannot be stopped. Eventually it will be the same in Afghanistan. Two of my family members speak fluent self taught Farsi and were there on the ground for the last seven years deeply involved in the International medical relief effort across 16 of 32 provinces. The women of Afghanistan are fed up. At some point they may arm themselves against the men running their society. It may all come to this in the entire Middle East. Women cannot be stopped once a certain point of sustained controlled rage has been reached. We shall see. My prayers are with all enlightened souls everywhere.

    Again, much thinks for this update on the developing situation.

    Everyone keep posting.

  • fubar

    LOL! Palin is fascinating. Inverted archetype: Nurturing Mommy as Strict Daddy. A mirror flashing contrasts of light and dark. Or is it an unformed/semiconscious memetic unfolding of Integralism on the Right? Palin of course appeals to the marginalized, rural, populist element of america, with its ethos of self-responsibility, hard work, etc. I lived in a very rural area 25 years ago (ranch/forest work), and even the counterculture people had an “anti-big-city” attitude. If the Left fails to deliver “Change”, do not be too surprised if the Palinistas make a roaring comeback. In american political culture, the void created by any failure on one “side” of the paradigm spectrum is quickly filled by the “other” side as the pendulum swings back and forth. e.g., Clinton's (perceived or real) failures left an opening for Bush/Rove. The conservative/corporatist axis still has an enormous “shadow” meme-machine in the form of many well funded think tanks, and other centers devoted to the high art of manipulating public opinion. They are presumably attempting a realignment, but I'm not sure exactly what it will look like.

    fwiw~the main problem I have with Palinism is the “incorrect” position on evolution (or perhaps more precisely, the lack of awareness of the “only partial” nature of “spiritual” truth that is contained in the anti-evolutionist position). Palin herself reminds me of conservative religious (christian) relatives: I don't agree with them about some political issues (corporations, green, civil rights, inconsistency in their “personal responsibility” meme), but I do love them because they are human beings, and family.

    Transpartisan means all the above points you cite, PLUS the accountability structure includes transcendence of biases in memes, paradigms, etc.

    Accountability will bring the holders of ANY “partial truths” that are disguised as “One Truth Above All” anti-patterns into the full light of day. Left/Right/Trans, its all about accountability at all levels.

    Transpartisanship means that people transcend “just bashing” (of “opposing” perspectives), and attempt to understand (but not necessarily “like”) the full nature of other paradigms, ideologies, and so forth.

    Again, this is the difficulty part of the crucible of politics and cultural evolution in Iran: how can people at difference “stages” of cultural evolution find enough “common ground” to form a concensus to create structural changes that lead to progress (honesty, justice, compassion)?

    If the forces of progress fall into the conventional trap, and fail to “include” spirit, they will leave their weaknesses exposed to attack.

  • fubar

    wahid/nima,
    wow! amazing.
    thanks.

  • wahidazal66

    A critique of the TAHIRIH JUSTICE CENTER

    Female Circumcision and the Tahirih Justice Center, Swans Commentary, July, Michael Barker
    13, 2009.
    http://www.swans.com/library/art15/barker24.html

  • fubar

    wahid/nima,
    if possible, post a summary, and brief analysis, for people that are too busy to read the whole thing right now.
    thanks!

  • fubar

    wahid/nima,
    if possible, post a summary, and brief analysis, for people that are too busy to read the whole thing right now.
    thanks!

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