The Universal House of Justice has released a letter they wrote to the Baha’is living in Iran. In the letter they acknowledge the hardships borne by the Baha’i community under the oppressive theocratic regime.
The House of Justice also notes the ongoing changes in the Middle East tying this with the Baha’i concept of the “rolling up” of the Old world order:
The world is in turmoil, and the onrushing tide of change is proceeding with unparalleled force and speed. The age-old order of the world has been disrupted, and the profound transformations that have taken place at all levels of human relationships call for a fundamental reconsideration of every aspect of life. This applies equally to Iranian society. Consider how its people are resolutely striving to establish a progressive society and are ready to bear every manner of pain and calamity in pursuit of this objective.
There is no doubt that every just person is counting the days and hours until the tyrannical regime in Iran crumbles and releases its people from their bondage. It must be noted at the same time that the Iranian people, unlike those in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere, are not taking up the fight for their future with equal fervor. There have been a few sporadic protests but for the most part the political leaders are under arrest, dissidents are tortured and killed, protests broken up and the other 99% of the population is too busy trying to provide for their next meal to really care about anything else.
And even if they were to suddenly take up the fight for freedom with tenacity, the result would only be further tragedy because the brutal and unforgiving government of Iran gives no quarter.
As long as the price of crude in international markets provides the IRI with enough funds to keep the Iranian economy hobbling along, they will be able to continue funding the apparatus that keeps them in power: the Basij, IRGC, VEVAK, etc.
Paradoxically, the same political turmoil that is now providing the alluring hope for real change in the Middle East is the very same force that is propelling crude oil above $100 per barrel. And so providing the Islamic regime with the financial buffer to continue to exist for a few more years.
If you want to know when the regime in Iran will fall, there is no need to continuously scan the Middle East news for protest, changes in their political machinations or any other fundamental variables. The only thing one needs to do is check the current price of crude oil. If it falls below $50 and is sustained there for a time, the Islamic regime will fall precipitously.
The 2008 financial crisis and world recession did sent the oil markets reeling. But they quickly recovered just as Iran is removing significant government subsidies. The increased revenue from crude oil and the decreased expenses from reduced subsidies will provide the IRI with much needed breathing room.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t make for inspiring prose. But it is a logical thesis built on facts.
The letter from the UHJ in full is shown below. The original Persian letter can be found here.